Sports betting has become a significant pastime for many South Africans, whether for fun or to make some money. But to truly succeed in betting, you need more than just luck – you need to understand how to calculate the expected value (EV) of your bets. Calculating the expected value helps you assess whether a bet is worth making based on its potential return and the odds offered by the bookmaker. In this article, we’ll dive deep into how to calculate expected value in South African sports betting and how you can use this knowledge to increase your chances of winning.
What is Expected Value in Sports Betting?
Expected value is a crucial concept in sports betting that allows bettors to gauge the potential profitability of their wagers over time. Rather than relying on gut feelings or random guesswork, understanding expected value offers a methodical approach to betting. In simple terms, it tells you what the average outcome of your bets will be if you were to place the same bet many times. Whether you’re betting on soccer, cricket, rugby, or any other sport, understanding EV can help you make better decisions.
At its core, expected value gives bettors a way to assess if a bet is worth placing based on the odds offered and the probability of the event happening. When you calculate the EV, you’re essentially looking at the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet in the long run. The higher the expected value, the more likely it is that you will make a profit over time. For example, a bet with an EV of +R100 means that, on average, you would expect to win R100 per bet if you placed it repeatedly.
To better understand this, let’s break it down with a practical example. Suppose you’re placing a bet on a soccer game between two teams, A and B. If the expected value of your bet is positive, this means that in the long run, the bet is profitable and will yield a return. For instance, a positive EV could indicate that the bookmaker is offering odds that are more favorable than the actual probability of the event occurring. This would give you a statistical edge, making it more likely that you will see a return over time.
On the other hand, if the expected value of your bet is negative, then you’re looking at a situation where, over time, you are more likely to lose money. Negative EV means that the odds provided by the bookmaker are not in your favor, and the bet is expected to result in a loss in the long run. While there might be occasional wins in the short term, placing consistent negative EV bets is a strategy that will likely lead to financial losses over time. This is why understanding EV is so important in sports betting — it helps you avoid making bets that will ultimately hurt your bankroll.
Why is Expected Value Important in Betting?
| Reason | Explanation | How It Helps | Example | Impact on Betting |
| Identify Value Bets | EV helps you spot value bets where the odds offered are greater than the actual probabilities. | By calculating EV, you can identify situations where bookmakers’ odds are in your favor. | If a bookmaker offers odds of 2.50 for a team with a 40% chance of winning, the EV might show that this bet is profitable in the long term. | Identifying value bets increases your chances of long-term profitability. |
| Manage Your Bankroll | Knowing which bets are worth the risk helps you make decisions that protect your funds. | EV lets you assess whether a bet is worth placing based on the potential return. | A bet with a negative EV might indicate a loss over time, encouraging you to avoid it. | Better bankroll management leads to a more sustainable betting strategy. |
| Make Smarter Decisions | EV removes the guesswork and reliance on intuition, replacing it with a logical, mathematical approach. | With EV, you can back up your betting decisions with numbers, ensuring more informed wagers. | If the EV calculation suggests a certain outcome is highly profitable, you are more likely to make an informed decision. | Smarter decision-making minimizes risks and increases long-term success. |
| Understand Risk vs Reward | EV quantifies the risk involved in a bet relative to the potential reward. | By understanding EV, you know which bets have higher returns for lower risks. | Betting R100 on a bet with a +R200 EV means you’re calculating the risk versus the reward. | Balancing risk and reward ensures you’re making bets that align with your goals. |
| Track Long-Term Profitability | EV helps you evaluate how profitable a bet will be over an extended period. | By considering EV, you can predict whether a betting strategy will be successful in the long term. | A series of positive EV bets might indicate that your betting strategy is working, whereas negative EV indicates the opposite. | Long-term profitability is achieved by consistently making bets with positive EV. |
How to Calculate Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting
Calculating the expected value (EV) of a bet is a crucial skill for any bettor aiming for long-term success. The formula for EV helps you assess the potential profitability of your bets and make more informed decisions. Below is a detailed breakdown of the steps involved in calculating expected value, using the basic formula:
- Probability of Winning
- This represents the likelihood that your bet will be successful. It’s usually expressed as a decimal or a percentage.
- For instance, if the team you’re betting on has a 60% chance of winning, the probability of winning is 0.60 (or 60%).
- Example: If there’s a 60% chance of a win, the probability of winning would be 0.60.
- Amount Won
- The amount you stand to win if your bet is successful. This can be calculated based on the odds provided by the bookmaker.
- For example, if you place a bet of R100 and the odds are 2.0, your total winnings will be the stake multiplied by the odds. So, R100 × 2.0 = R200 (R100 profit + R100 stake returned).
- Example: If the odds for a bet are 2.0 and you bet R100, you will win R200 if your bet is successful.
- Probability of Losing
- This is the complementary probability to the chance of winning. If the probability of winning is 0.60, then the probability of losing would be 1 – 0.60 = 0.40.
- Example: If there is a 60% chance of winning, there is a 40% chance of losing.
- Amount Lost
- The amount you would lose if your bet doesn’t win. This is typically your initial stake.
- In most cases, the amount lost is the money you initially placed on the bet.
- Example: If you place a bet of R100, the amount you stand to lose is R100 if the bet does not win.
Step-by-Step Guide to Calculate EV
To better understand how to calculate the expected value (EV) of a bet, let’s go through a detailed example. Let’s imagine you’re betting on a soccer match between Team A and Team B. You’re interested in betting on Team A, which has odds of 2.50 to win. Your stake is R100. Now, let’s break down the process and calculate the EV of this bet.
First, let’s determine the probability of winning. Since the odds are 2.50, the probability of winning can be calculated using the formula:
Probability of Winning = 1 / Odds
In this case, it’s 1 divided by 2.50, which equals 0.40, or 40%. This means there is a 40% chance that Team A will win the match. Next, we calculate the probability of losing, which is simply the complement of the probability of winning. Since the probability of winning is 0.40, the probability of losing is 1 – 0.40 = 0.60, or 60%.
Now, let’s determine the potential amounts won and lost. If your bet wins, you’ll receive your initial stake multiplied by the odds. With a R100 stake and odds of 2.50, you’ll win R250 if Team A wins. On the other hand, if your bet loses, you’ll lose the amount you staked, which in this case is R100.
So, the expected value of this bet is R40. This means, on average, you can expect to win R40 per bet if you place the same bet on Team A multiple times over a long period. The positive EV indicates that, in the long run, this bet would be profitable, making it a worthwhile wager according to the expected value calculation.
Using EV to Make Better Betting Decisions
| Betting Situation | Description | Example | Action | Outcome |
| Identifying Value Bets | A value bet occurs when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than what they should be, based on the true probability of the outcome happening. | If you calculate the true probability of a team winning at 50%, but the bookmaker offers odds that imply only a 40% chance of winning, you have found a value bet. | Place the bet if the EV is positive and the odds are greater than the implied probability. | A higher positive EV means the bet holds more value, increasing potential for profit. |
| Betting on Underdogs | Sports bettors often overlook underdogs, but they can provide high EV opportunities, especially when the bookmaker’s odds are inflated. | By calculating the EV for betting on an underdog, you may uncover profitable opportunities that others miss. | Calculate EV for underdog bets to uncover profitable opportunities that might be ignored by others. | Betting on underdogs can be profitable when the odds are in your favor. |
| Adjusting Your Betting Strategy | If your calculated EV is negative, it’s probably best to avoid placing that bet. On the other hand, if your bet shows a positive EV, it might be worth the risk. | If your bet shows a negative EV, consider adjusting your betting strategy or avoiding the bet altogether. | Avoid negative EV bets and focus on bets with a positive EV to make long-term profits. | Focusing on positive EV bets improves long-term profitability and avoids unnecessary losses. |
The Role of Odds in Calculating EV
In South African sports betting, odds are an essential part of determining the expected value (EV) of a bet. Understanding how odds work is crucial for making accurate EV calculations. Below is a detailed breakdown of how different types of odds influence your calculations:
- Decimal Odds
- Decimal odds are widely used in South Africa and many other countries. To convert decimal odds into probabilities, you can use the following formula:
- Formula: Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds
- Example: For odds of 2.50:
- Probability = 1 / 2.50 = 0.40 (or 40%)
- Explanation: Decimal odds show the amount you’ll win for every R1 bet, including your stake. In this case, a R100 bet at odds of 2.50 would result in R250 in total (R100 x 2.50), with R150 as your profit.
- Fractional Odds
- Although less common in South Africa, fractional odds are still important, especially when using international betting sites. The formula for converting fractional odds to probabilities is:
- Formula: Probability = Denominator / (Denominator + Numerator)
- Example: For odds of 5/2:
- Probability = 2 / (2 + 5) = 0.2857 (or 28.57%)
- Explanation: Fractional odds show how much you can win relative to your stake. In the case of 5/2 odds, for every R2 staked, you’ll win R5 if your bet is successful.
- American Odds
- American odds are often used on international betting platforms and are expressed either as positive (+) or negative (-) numbers. They represent different types of betting scenarios:
- Positive American Odds (e.g., +200): These show how much profit you can make on a R100 bet. For example, +200 means you will win R200 profit for every R100 bet.
- Negative American Odds (e.g., -150): These indicate how much you need to stake in order to win R100. For example, -150 means you need to stake R150 to make a R100 profit.
- Formula for Probability:
- For positive odds: Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)
- For negative odds: Probability = -Odds / (Odds – 100)
- Comparing Odds Across Bookmakers
- To maximize your expected value, always compare the odds offered by different bookmakers. A slight difference in odds (even just a few decimal points) can significantly impact your EV, especially if you’re betting on multiple events.
- Action: Before placing a bet, shop around for the best odds to ensure you’re maximizing potential profit. A small change in odds can make a big difference to your overall returns over time.
- American odds are often used on international betting platforms and are expressed either as positive (+) or negative (-) numbers. They represent different types of betting scenarios:
- Although less common in South Africa, fractional odds are still important, especially when using international betting sites. The formula for converting fractional odds to probabilities is:
- Decimal odds are widely used in South Africa and many other countries. To convert decimal odds into probabilities, you can use the following formula:
Advanced EV Strategies
While basic expected value (EV) calculations are an essential part of sports betting, experienced bettors often use more sophisticated strategies to maximize their long-term profits. These advanced strategies take into account a variety of factors and provide a more comprehensive approach to betting. By integrating these methods into your betting approach, you can increase the likelihood of long-term success.
Another advanced strategy involves betting on multiple markets within a single sporting event. In sports like soccer, there are numerous betting markets, such as the match result, over/under goals, player props, and even more specific in-game scenarios. By calculating the EV for each of these markets, you can spread your risk and increase the number of opportunities to place profitable bets. This diversification of markets allows you to take advantage of value bets across a variety of betting options, rather than limiting yourself to one type of bet.
Bet diversification is another key strategy for advanced bettors. By diversifying your bets across multiple sports, leagues, and bet types, you can reduce the volatility associated with sports betting. This helps in mitigating the risk of large losses when a single market or event doesn’t go your way. Diversification increases your chances of finding profitable opportunities with positive EV across different betting options, helping you to spread risk and maintain a steady, long-term profit trajectory. Advanced bettors understand that by applying these strategies, they can maximize their potential returns and minimize the risks involved in sports betting.
